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Virtual Reality: The Past, Present, and Future

Writer's picture: Michael Trotter-LawsonMichael Trotter-Lawson

You have likely heard of virtual reality, or VR for short. In this case, I am referring primarily to true, total VR, as I think augmented reality is worthy of its own explanation at some other time. The term “virtual reality” has only existed in its current understanding since the 80s, when Jaron Lanier designed some of the first high-end virtual reality hardware under his firm VPL Research. VR, in more a theoretical sense, has been popularized by films like Lawnmower Man and Tron. Only very recently has VR technology become practically available to the average consumer, though even now, it’s still a relatively niche market.


The 1990s saw the first widespread commercial releases of consumer headsets. In 1992, for instance, Computer Gaming World predicted quote "affordable VR by 1994". However, this was a woeful misunderstanding of the technology and its applications at that time. In the early days of VR, it was prohibitively expensive for any normal consumer to acquire any of these products. In addition, the graphical capabilities of the early VR headsets were extremely limited by technology at that time. With headsets that put screens literal inches away from the users’ eyes, no software developed for early VR could be anywhere near realistic, even for graphical standards at the time. VR required some of the world's best computers to run at all in the 90s, meaning that VR was relegated largely to gimmick arcade machines and some technical, practical applications.


The pioneers of VR in the late 80s and early 90s needed a way to secure funding for research and development of these first VR systems, and much of that funding was justified by the practical applications for VR, which are still used today. VR allows for training in environments that are extremely dangerous, such as some manufacturing jobs or surgery. Having initial, introductory training in these jobs significantly lowers the chance of someone getting seriously maimed because of a mistake due to inexperience. NASA utilizes VR for astronaut training, and the military uses it for training a variety of skills. Even if the at-home, more inexpensive modern forms of VR never found traction, virtual reality would always have a home in these life-preserving applications. However, in 2012, there was a breakthrough in the field of consumer VR: the Oculus Rift.


Oculus VR was founded by Palmer Luckey, who is an entrepreneur largely responsible for the revival of VR, which seemed destined for obscurity as arcades were largely supplanted by at-home consoles during the 2000s. Luckey funded the Oculus Rift using a highly successful Kickstarter campaign financed by a relatively small but passionate group of VR enthusiasts. His headset designs were revolutionary for their low latency (meaning a very quick response to input) and haptic feedback, giving the user a much more immersive experience. In VR, immersion is everything. The ability to experience fantasies beyond one’s imagination is the main draw for VR, so technologies that improve that virtual experience were one of the crucial missing links to giving VR a wider audience. Sadly, the other most vital missing link was cost, something Luckey was not able to solve.


At least not without significant financial support. That is where Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg comes in. Only two years after the Oculus Rift Kickstarter, Facebook acquired Oculus VR for 3 billion dollars. Around this time, smartphone VR had a brief surge in popularity, as companies realized that the modern cell phone was a device that already had gyroscopic technology to track where the phone was, as well as a screen with a higher resolution than the human retina. However, smartphone VR headsets lacked much functionality. They were almost exclusively just a method of viewing 360-degree videos, which is a fun gimmick, but it lacks staying power. Simultaneously, as Oculus expanded using Facebook’s money, other headsets like the Vive, made in partnership with HTC and Valve, and Sony’s PlayStation VR began to see limited success. However, none of these headsets could overcome the barrier to entry that is cost.


As it was in 90s, most of these modern headsets worked and continue to work off the backs of very powerful computers. As modern technological advancements allow for more powerful computing tech to be more readily available, many more consumers have PCs with the hardware necessary to run these headsets. Nearly all these consumers, however, are gamers; video game enthusiasts who have invested hundreds, if not thousands of dollars to build high-end PCs capable of running the most advanced software imaginable. These individuals are definitely the main demographic for these VR headsets, as the escapism offered by video games in general is also the most appealing trait of entertainment-based VR. Yet, video games can have mass appeal because of consoles and mobile games, which allow people to play games without investing the price of a used car into a computer. The price of a VR headset on top of that is absurd for the average person and all but the most dedicated gamers. Enter the Oculus Quest.


The Oculus Quest was not the first standalone VR headset, but it is widely considered the first quote in quote “real” standalone headset. Its predecessor, the Oculus Go had extremely limited hardware, and was only a slight improvement over the smartphone VR headsets. The Quest, on the other hand, was much more powerful, and Facebook enforced stricter content and quality standards for software released for the Quest, leading to a higher standard of VR experiences for new adopters. The first Quest was the best standalone headset on offer, but it was still criticized for being too front heavy and lacking software. In addition, it was $400-500, depending on the storage space, which was relatively inexpensive (the HTC Vive, for example, was $800), but the Quest was not at all cheap. A year later, the Quest 2 managed to solve many of the Quest’s problems. It was lighter, more powerful, and a full hundred dollars cheaper with double the storage space. This positioned the Quest 2 to lead the way into VR’s current standing as a hobby only slightly less accessible than console gaming.


The VR industry benefitted tremendously from the pandemic, as people were trapped inside and desperate for an escape. VR headsets in general, but the Quest 2 in particular was able to provide that escape, as it accounted for 80% of all VR headsets sold in 2021. In fact, according to Grand View Research, the global VR market will grow to 62.1 billion dollars in 2027. So, as more and more individuals start to try and buy their own VR headsets, what effect is this likely to have on the world as a whole? This takes us back to Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook, and most importantly, Meta.


Going back to the founding of Oculus VR, you may be wondering how exactly a company goes from selling the Oculus Rift, a prototype development kit, for about $400 dollars in today’s money is able to turn around and sell a significantly more powerful, standalone device for a hundred dollars less in just ten years. The short answer is that Zuckerberg went all-in for the Metaverse. Facebook is still one of the most influential social media platforms in the world, but its popularity has waned in recent years, and its user base’s average age has steadily risen since 2008. In addition, anti-trust lawsuits threatening Meta’s control over its subsidiaries WhatsApp and Instagram, as well as a plethora of controversies surrounding Facebook’s collection of user data and its inability to police fake news on its site has investors concerned for Meta’s future as a social media empire. All of this takes us back to Facebook’s acquisition of Oculus, and Meta’s hopes for virtual reality.


While exact numbers are impossible to know, experts believe that Oculus Quest 2 is being sold at a significant loss. However, this is by design. Meta is banking on their low price leading to widespread adoption of VR, encouraging more software developers and game designers to create higher quality programs for these headsets. Up to this point, VR has been plagued by a lack of big, quality games, as developers are hesitant to invest money into what they see as a small niche of the gaming sphere. With VR’s dramatic growth during the pandemic, the games will come. However, Zuckerberg is desperate for VR to go beyond the realm of video games; he wants VR to lead to the ultimate social experience.

The metaverse, as a theoretical concept that predates the company Meta, is a hypothetical iteration of the Internet as a single, universal and immersive virtual world that is facilitated using virtual reality. This is Zuckerberg and Meta’s ultimate goal, but the road is plagued with logistical and moral difficulties. The internet is an incredible place, but learning how to handle its effects on humanity, especially children, is a challenge to say the least. A true metaverse would likely exacerbate all the internet’s best and worst features, and Meta has been criticized for pursuing this goal seemingly without grasping its potential implications. Regardless, this potential future for VR and Meta is a long way from reality, as much of the technology required has yet to be developed. Even if the needed technology were around today, the public’s actual interest in a true metaverse is questionable. Early VR social experiences have seen some popularity, but that popularity is largely born of an internet subculture that many look down on and even more do not take seriously (it’s furries).


The future of virtual reality is uncertain. It has grown tremendously in the last decade, especially in the last couple years, but many do not see it as the future of technological advancement like Meta seems to. Even with all the advancements made since the first VR headset all the way back in the 60s, VR headsets can still cause a number of unwanted symptoms from prolonged use, and some users may experience twitches, seizures or blackouts while using VR headsets, even if they do not have a history of epilepsy and have never had blackouts or seizures before. These instances, however, are quite rare, and most just experience some motion sickness, eyestrain, headaches, and discomfort if they use headsets for too long.


VR, regardless of its future, has simultaneously exciting and worrisome potential.

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